Destination Earth – DestinE – is an ambitious initiative of the European Commission, in support of its Digital Strategy and the Green Deal. Bringing together scientific and industrial excellence from across Europe, DestinE will contribute to revolutionising the European capability to monitor and predict our changing planet, complementing existing national and European efforts, as those provided by the national meteorological services and the Copernicus Services.
Based on the integration of extreme-scale computing, Earth system simulations and the real-time exploitation of all available environmental observations, DestinE will develop high-accuracy digital twins, or replicas, of the Earth. DestinE will thus to allow users of all levels the ability to better explore natural and human activity, and to test a range of scenarios and potential mitigation strategies.
Under the European Commission's leadership, and in coordination with the Member States, scientific communities and other stakeholders, ESA, ECMWF and EUMETSAT are the three entrusted entities tasked with delivering the first phase of the DestinE by 2024.
ECMWF will be responsible for building the ‘digital twin engine’ software and data infrastructure and for using it to deliver the first two high-priority digital twins, while European Space Agency (ESA) provides the platform through which users will access the service, and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) develops the data repository.
This talk will give a high-level introduction of the programme, and it will particularly focus on the first two priority digital twins. The Digital Twin on Weather-Induced and Geophysical Extremes will provide capabilities for the assessment and prediction of environmental extremes. The Digital Twin on Climate Change Adaptation will support the generation of analytical insights and testing of predictive scenarios in support of climate adaptation and mitigation policies at multi-decadal timescales, at regional and national levels.
DestinE’s digital twins will rely on Earth system modelling and data assimilation – the process of combining information from observations and models to distil the most likely current state of the Earth system. Their development will push these capabilities further than ever. Observations will come from many sources, including devices like mobile phones and the internet of things. In addition, new approaches from machine learning and artificial intelligence will be used to improve the realism and efficiency of these digital representations of our world. To increase the added value of the digital twins for societal applications, they will be co-designed and tested with users from sectors such as water management, renewable energy, health and agriculture. This co-designed approach will also help to further improve operational Copernicus Services in the relevant sectors.
The individual digital twins will produce near real-time, highly detailed and constantly evolving replicas of Earth, including impacts from human activities. Ultimately, they will be combined to build a single, highly complex replica of the Earth system that will be more detailed than anything seen before, providing prediction capabilities with an unprecedented level of detail and reliability.
Digital twins form a means for scientists, policymakers, and industry to engage with society and extract the best value from existing data to understand and interact with system Earth. Using digital twins we can provide expert solutions to societal problems on the one hand and deliver support for co-creation of ready-to-use tools on the other hand. As Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), we have experience with both.
The co-creation of several tools for decision support ensures safety and sustainability of the Dutch delta in a changing climate, such as a digital twin of the Rhine-Meuse delta to monitor saltwater intrusions , and a digital twin of the Rotterdam port and delta system to test how future (climate and urban) stresses and interventions can affect the system . Particularly, these examples advance exploratory uses in developing awareness, system understanding and decision-making capacity. They form the basis of decision-support tools co-developed with the end users.
Our experience shows that digital twins are most effective if the resulting tools are modular and usable, enabling stakeholders to swap datasets and models, or even alter the simulated state without being specialised experts. The success of a global digital twin depends on its ability to tie together the different parts of the Earth system with seamless data assimilation that incorporates real-time incoming data sources. Moreover, it should balance the uncertainties of all components to build relevant decision-support systems.
Use case with co-design of decision-support tools
An example of a decision-support tool is the eWaterCycle platform, co-designed with the hydrological community, who are the real users of the platform, and research software engineers. Ongoing research uses output from the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) project as part of a collaboration with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). In the short term, the platform supports government decisions on risk management and risk communication. These include the closing and opening of locks, restrictions on the extraction of groundwater which require accurate predictions of seasonal variability as well as major floods, drought management plans and tariff structures. We also investigate current and future flood risk and adaptation of the Dutch delta , including grey and nature-based solutions. High-resolution data (incl. subsoil conditions, and real time deformations) is needed to understand the reliability of defences and the possibilities for adaptation. In the case of flood threats, scenario-driven risk assessments will be key for quick decision making about temporary structural measures, the most vulnerable parts of critical infra systems and the safest evacuation routes. The involvement of stakeholders from the start of the project, and the use of interactive tools from gaming technology improve the transparency of this decision-making process.
Use cases with integration of Earth system observations and dynamic models
The integration of subsurface data and dynamic models simulating geothermal energy systems is part of the DAPwell , a Living Lab being developed with industrial partners at the TU Delft campus which includes state-of-the-art equipment to monitor and evaluate the use of geothermal energy and address the scientific challenges. It also provides the TU Delft campus and the municipality of Delft with sustainable energy. The project is used as a source of data and a case study for other national research programmes via a transnational access programme, evaluating the use of geothermal energy. Specifically, the DAPwell will contribute to the European innovative training network EASYGO and the sharing of data will be realised via the European Plate Observing System (EPOS) facilities, where co-creation of data-driven tools is ongoing.
Another use case of a data-assimilation scheme developed by TU Delft is a framework to constrain land surface models with remote sensing data which is co-designed with developers at the Dutch eScience Center and collaborators at TU Wien and Meteo-France. Artificial intelligence serves to relate states of a land surface model to Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) geo-located radar backscatter and dynamic vegetation parameters as a step towards assimilating these new data. Our focus is to develop new measurement operators to allow for the assimilation of low-level microwave data to constrain states and parameters in land-atmosphere exchanges. This is relevant for climate modeling, ecosystem modeling and numerical weather prediction. An additional use case merges satellite data and climate models to estimate the impact of ice-sheet stability on sea-level rise, in close collaboration with the European Space Agency. Through this project, TU Delft contributes to the European research project “Protect ”. Outside of Europe, TU Delft is developing tools for the monitoring and forecasting of coastline changes due to subsidence and sea-level rise in the Bangkok area. Models of subsidence and sea-level change assimilate satellite data as well as in-situ measurements and combine these with scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) for global sea-level rise.
Use cases with advanced modelling for decision support
In the infrastructural domain, a digital twin is being used to find the optimal water way through the use of digital twins in the SmartPort project, an initiative of SmartPort and its partners Deltares and TU Delft, involving Witteveen+Bos and inland shipping entrepreneurs in the co-design. This digital twin fairway corridor mimics the interaction between ships, rivers, and infrastructure, such as bridges and locks. In this way, the consequences of climate change are identified, which by translating the impact assessment to concrete measures can guarantee reliable, sustainable, and future-proof freight transport over water.
As part of the Resilient Delta Initiative , TU Delft and partners Erasmus University Rotterdam and Erasmus MC collaborate with the Port of Rotterdam and the Municipality of Rotterdam to find technology-driven solutions to the societal issues related to current transitions. The initiative embeds new ideas and practices in society from the start. A digital twin of the Rotterdam delta is being developed to find smart and resilient solutions for long-term climate adaptation.
Tools and data sets for monitoring and forecasting of the weather in support of these use cases are being developed by TU Delft in the nationwide observatory “Ruisdael”, in collaboration with other universities and the national institutes KNMI and RIVM. The ambition of this large-scale infrastructural project is to explore opportunities and challenges for monitoring and forecasting weather and air quality over the Dutch delta at the 100-metre scale. The Ruisdael Observatory is closely linked to a number of European research projects and infrastructures: Aerosol, Clouds and Trace Gases Research Infrastructure (ACTRIS) for monitoring clouds, aerosols and trace gases, Research Infrastructures Services Reinforcing Air Quality Monitoring Capacities in European Urban & Industrial AreaS (RI-URBANS) on monitoring of urban air quality and public health, Intergated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) on monitoring of greenhouse gases, as well as the Pilot Application in Urban Landscapes towards integrated city observatories for greenhouse gases (PAUL) city network and the Sustainable Access to Atmospheric Research Facilities (ATMO-ACCESS) program. Figure 1 illustrates a digital twin of the Dutch Atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation (DALES) model, one of the tools of the Ruisdael Observatory.
Building on our extensive experience with the co-design of integrated Earth-system simulators for decision support, TU Delft is eager to engage with other developers in the co-design of digital twins, providing an invaluable tool for policymakers dealing with risk management and communication.
Caption:
Figure 1 Example of a digital twin for the Randstad area in The Netherlands. Shown is a simulation of the Dutch Atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation (DALES) model, one of the tools of the Ruisdael Observatory. It simulates the emission and disperion of CO2 and in a turbulence resolved atmopshere at a resolution of 200m.
Digital twins have become a valuable tool in industrial production to mirror processes in a way that allows for holistic simulation, monitoring and modelling. To transfer these techniques to a much wider geographical scope, such as an entire country, both poses challenges and bears tremendous unused potential. Challenges range from technological scaling and modelling to information management and data integration. However, recent advancements in information technology — such as increased processing capabilities through cloud computing and artificial intelligence or improved surveying techniques and methodologies that allow accurate, large-scale LIDAR capture —now put the prospect of a nationwide digital twin within reach.
The potential applications for such a digital twin are vast and offer an opportunity for new and deeper insights into the problems we face as a society. How can we best address climate change mitigation? What factors drive natural disaster risks such as flash flooding and how can we best prepare, adapt or recover from them? What is the scope of our land use, what drives it and how does this affect our surroundings such as biodiversity and ecosystems? For governments, using a digital twin in this way would offer a new perspective with greater detail on planning public infrastructure, such as the energy grid or broadband and cellular services. Realistically modelling these problems and simulating alternatives can help decision makers take informed decisions. The European Commission has realised this potential and is currently working on several digital twins of the earth with its Destination Earth (DestinE) programme. Similarly, through its ambitious national digital twin project, the German Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy (BKG) aims to bridge the gap between local application and national policy.
Digital Twin Germany aims to incorporate as much authoritative data as possible from existing data infrastructures and information systems of federal authorities. This provides a comprehensive foundation for technical analysis, including simulations, time series and prediction methods. At the core of Digital Twin Germany lies a high-precision 3D model with a spatial resolution of less than 30 centimetres for the entire country. The 3D aerial survey will take place during the growing season, i.e. between March and October, in leaf-on conditions. To capture the entirety of Germany within one year, new techniques such as Geiger mode LIDAR or Single Photon LIDAR (SPL) are needed as they offer a higher capturing rate. The result is a homogeneous (temporally and methodically consistent), large-scale dataset of remarkable resolution for its scope.
This 3D model is enriched with additional geodata to create the foundation of Digital Twin Germany. This includes spatial baseline data, which primarily describe buildings, administrative areas, traffic elements, landscapes or land cover and land use in a classified manner. This basic data stock will then be expanded to include a wide variety of information levels, for example with specialised data on climate, infrastructure, agriculture, traffic flows or satellite images from a variety of sensors. The data stock is heterogeneous and dynamically expandable . To accommodate the size and variety of data while and making it readily available for analysis, the structure of a multi-dimensional datacube is to be used. Datacubes are particularly suitable for storing extremely resource-intensive space-time values or raster data. Storage management is federated similarly to a spatial data infrastructure. Accordingly, the specialised data can be held by users on local servers and the processing of requests and analyses is distributed. In addition to data provision and processing resources, the digital twin will provide a framework to implement further innovative digital technologies and methods. For example, a connection to real-time sensor technology, the Internet of Things (IoT), machine learning as part of artificial intelligence, big data analytics and a modern visualisation tool, are all part of the digital twin platform.
In preparation for a national Digital Twin Germany, a demonstration project is currently being carried out in the Hamburg Metropolitan Region. For this project, the BKG is exploring potentially relevant technologies, methods and data that can then be scaled to Germany as a whole. The complete nationwide project would then be implemented accordingly. In October 2021, an area of the Hamburg Metropolitan Region was surveyed using SPL technology. The aerial survey captured an area of 8650 km² with a point density 42 pts/m²and vertical accuracy of less than 10 cm. An impression of the expected level of detail is given in Figure 1, which illustrates data from the demonstration region. Through this prototype, initial experience can be gained with large 3D datasets to support the conception of the nationwide digital twin. The first tools and applications of Digital Twin Germany will be made available as soon as the base dataset is completed. All interested authorities can then use it and conduct their own analyses and derive forecasts from it. During its presentation, the BKG will share preliminary results and initial experiences from this project.
The STSE 3D Earth project is part of a long-term vision of the European Space Agency Science for Society programme: developing the most advanced reconstruction of our solid Earth from the core to the surface in order to study the dynamic forces in the Earth interior.
In the 3D Earth, a global reference model of the outer layer of the Solid Earth, the crust and upper mantle, has been established that combines information from satellite data, e.g. from the Earth Explorer Missions GOCE and Swarm, and terrestrial data sets, e.g. seismological and petrological information. The model provides a novel view into the make-up of the Earth and allows for example to study the feedback between the Geosphere and Cryosphere as expressed by glacial isostatic adjustment of recent ice loads in North America, or the role of geothermal heat flow in affecting the ice-sheets of Antarctica and Greenland. Another application is quantifying the coupling between the dynamic forces deep in the mantle and plate tectonics at the surface. While these processes are on a human time scale slow and steady, they link to catastrophic events as earthquakes or volcanoes.
In order for a full Digital Twin of the Solid Earth, the current model has to be extended to include the entire mantle to the core. That will allow to study the feedback between tectonic processes and the fluid dynamics in the core on different time scales. However, the current model serves as a first-generation simulator to predict the time varying gravity field due to processes in the Solid Earth, a potential target of the next generation gravity satellite mission, at their specific spatial and time scales. A full Digital Twin of the Geosphere has to be coupled to the Cryosphere, Ocean and Atmosphere in order provide a full feedback system of the dynamic forces in the Earth system.
For NASA's Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program, an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) is defined as an interactive and integrated multidomain, multiscale, digital replica of the state and temporal evolution of Earth systems. It dynamically integrates: relevant Earth system models and simulations; other relevant models (e.g., related to the world's infrastructure); continuous and timely (including near real time and direct readout) observations (e.g., space, air, ground, over/underwater, Internet of Things (IoT), socioeconomic); long-time records; as well as analytics and artificial intelligence tools. Effective ESDTs enable users to run hypothetical scenarios to improve the understanding, prediction of and mitigation/response to Earth system processes, natural phenomena and human activities as well as their many interactions.
An ESDT is a type of integrated information system that, for example, enables continuous assessment of impact from naturally occurring and/or human activities on physical and natural environments.
AIST ESDT strategic goals are to:
1. Develop information system frameworks to provide continuous and accurate representations of systems as they change over time;
2. Mirror various Earth Science systems and utilize the combination of Data Analytics, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Thread, and state-of-the-art models to help predict the Earth’s response to various phenomena;
3. Provide the tools to conduct "what if" investigations that can result in actionable predictions.
The AIST ESDT thrust is developing capabilities toward the development of future digital twins of the Earth or of subcomponents of the Earth. This will enable the development of an overarching framework that will integrate New Observing Strategies (NOS) to enable new observation measurements, i.e., multi-source, coordinated, dynamic and responsive to needs and requests defined by Analytic Collaborative Frameworks (ACF) that enable agile science investigations fusing and analyzing very large amounts of diverse data. NOS and ACF capabilities along with open access to various science, infrastructure and human data, interconnected modeling, data assimilation, simulations, surrogate modeling, high-performance computing and advanced visualization, will define a powerful framework that could be utilized for local, regional or global and/or thematic digital twins.
This presentation will describe a general overview of the AIST ESDT vision including prior work done in the areas of NOS and ACF as well as current and upcoming ESDT projects.
Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO)
NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD)